Future exposure of forest ecosystems to multi‐year drought in the United States
نویسندگان
چکیده
As the future climate becomes hotter or drier, forests may be exposed to more frequent severe droughts. To inform efforts ensure resilient forests, it is critical know which most drought and where. Longer duration droughts lasting 2–3 years are especially important quantify because likely experience impacts. We summarized exposure 36-month for across conterminous United States using Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) overlaid on forest inventory plot locations. Exposure was quantified under 10 scenarios that combined five modeled climates two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, 4.5 8.5) through 2070. Future projections indicate a tripling of monthly spatial extent extreme drought—38% were average by mid-century as opposed 11% during 1991–2020 (2041–2070). Increases in greatest (HadGEM2-ES), drier (IPSL-CM5A-MR), middle (NorESM1-M) models, either RCP. Projections agreed portions western States, southwestern could face high levels exposure. Forest types including pinyon/juniper, woodland hardwoods, ponderosa pine projected than 50% time all mid-century, when no type 25% any scenario recent period. less eastern but some scenarios, particularly RCP 8.5, large East nearly often parts West. Moreover, substantial portion oak/hickory occur regions, where agree increased This study provides novel insights about changing conditions both States. Our results can with information sensitivities adaptive capacities ecosystems prioritize adaptation efforts.
منابع مشابه
Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Ecosphere
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2150-8925']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4525